As stated in one of my previous posts, I will show the ratings that my model predicted for the 2021 Italian GP. Unlike the previous 2021 Hungarian GP, I think this race was a bit more traditional, so hopefully we will see better results this time.
Just as last time, right now I’m just posting the predictions created by the model that I created a few races ago. Once the media outlets release their actual ratings, I will update this post to show the performance of our model.
Once again, Sky never released their ratings. I have to assume they won’t release updates for the second half of the season. I will retrain the model for the next race and I will remove them from the predictions.
The Race keeps being our greatest nemesis. Their ratings are just so inconsistent that it makes it really hard for the model to predict accurately what rating are they going to give to each driver.
This was another atypical weekend since we saw the alternate F1-weekend format that includes the sprint qualifying session. The model doesn’t take the sprint qualifying session into consideration for the predictions so the performance is expected to be a bit lower than usual.
For the prediction chart, I added the two top predictions that were given by the model. I needed to give myself a fighting chance since getting it right with just the first prediction is quite hard.
On this occasion, we got the rating right only for 22% of the ratings that were given out. If we add our second prediction, then we had an accuracy of 43% which is a lot better. What if we had made a third prediction? In that case, out predictive accuracy would’ve increased to 55%.
First of all, thank you for taking the time to read this article. I will update this post once the ratings from the media outlets are released. No matter how or model did, good or bad, I want to show you that the world of analytics is not perfect, and that sometimes there are obstacles on the road.
If you want to support me, there are multiple ways you can donate some money to help me keep this project alive. You can find all the options on either the about tab or the my supporters tab in the main menu.