Let’s take a look at an infographic representing all the tracks of the calendar and their respective characteristics. Will Ferrari be favoured in their home Grand Prix? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
I got the information that Pirelli provides for each track. The Italian manufacturer rates each circuit in 5 different categories: tyre stress, lateral energy, asphalt grip, asphalt abrasion, and downforce. Each one of these categories is ranked from 1 to 5, with 5 being the highest and 1 being the lowest. I added a few more variables, including the length of each track, as well as the average speed (as of 2018).
- Mercedes has won 10 of the past 13 races, with Red Bull taking 2 victories, and Ferrari a single one.
- In qualifying, Mercedes has taken pole position 8 times, with Ferrari obtaining the first place 4 times, and Red Bull once.
- Only once has Ferrari taken the race victory, and a 1-2 grid start. This ocassion came just a few days ago, at the Belgium Grand Prix.
- Monza is the fastest track of the calendar with an average speed of 263.59 km/h.
- The Autodromo Nazionale Monza is the 7th longest track of the calendar.
- Monza is the track with the lowest aerodynamic requirements of the calendar.
With Monza being the track with the lowest aerodynamic requirements of the calendar, Ferrari should take victory in their home race. They have to if they want to challenge for the Constructor’s Championship. Of the remaining 7 races (after Monza), 4 have high aerodynamic requirements, so Mercedes and Red Bull will be favoured in them. Mercedes will be heavily favoured over Ferrari in the next two races, Singapore and Russia, so there is no margin for error for the Italian team.
Looking at the rest of the calendar, it is very hard to see the Scuderia making their way to the top of the table. Only in the Circuit of the Americas, a fairly balanced track, Ferrari can perhaps be seen as the rival to beat. Ferrari could try to mount a challenge with a victory on Sunday, but their chances are fairly slim.
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